Weekend Top 25 Games, And My Picks

Let's see how I do.  I'll add a quick note with my pick, so I can be humiliated for eating my words or brag for being right on come Sunday night.  I promise to post my results.


Saturday:

#1 Ohio State at #23 Illinois  Ohio State's gotten the buzz this week by replacing Duke as the top team (my vote goes to Kansas), but their stay will be short.  OSU hasn't played a team as good as Illinois or played in as tough an environment as Assembly Hall.  The close wins end here, against an Illinois team that hasn't lost at home.

#10 Texas at #2 Kansas  Never, ever pick against Kansas at home.  Particularly with a single digit number next to their game.  With my prediction of an OSU loss, this should put the Jayhawks in position to take the top ranking.

#7 Villanova at #3 Syracuse  The Carrier Dome will be rocking, and Cuse will not lose two straight.  We saw on Monday why they're not the top team in the Big East, but they'll prove on Saturday that they're the second best team over Nova.

#4 Duke at Wake Forest  Despite being a questionable hire, we'll have to give Bzdelik a couple years to get Wake Forest back to respectability...but they're a proud program and it's a shame to see then as an ACC bottomfeeder in a down ACC. That's why I'm NOT taking Wake; I could give you dozens of reasons why I am picking Duke.

#5 Pittsburgh at DePaul  You're kidding, right?  I think Pitt is the second best team in the country, behind Kansas.  I think DePaul is a below average mid-major that somehow gets to host 9 Big East teams each year.

Tennessee at #8 Connecticut  Will we get Jekyl or Hyde from Tennessee?  The team that beat Pitt  in Pittsburgh, where no one else will this year, should have no problem beating the Huskies in Hartford.  But I'll take UConn, because there's only one Kemba Walker that will show up Saturday, and he's really, really good.

#9 BYU at Colorado State  Jimmer Fredette can win most Mountain West games with one hand tied behind his back, including this one.  The big game is next Wednesday, when BYU hosts San Diego State.  They'll almost certainly meet 3 times this season; the team that wins twice is a likely 2 seed, and if either can sweep the other the Mountain West will have a 1 seed in March.

Kansas State at #11 Texas A&M  Frank Martin's team started the season in the top 5, but were only 3-3 against non-conference competition and have struggled to a 1-3 start in the Big 12, showing again that it's one of the best conferences.  I'll take the trend to continue, as the Aggies' season has been just the opposite: not picked to be elite, but winning their tough games and dominant at home.

#12 Kentucky at South Carolina  Kentucky fell behind by 20 before nearly coming back to beat Alabama.  They'll lose a couple more games like that, as the youth is more obvious than last year, but they'll continue the surge that almost got them a win on Tuesday against South Carolina on Saturday. 

Iowa State at #13 Missouri  Fred Hoiberg has the Cyclones competing, but they're not good enough to win at Mizzou.  Marcus Denmon is a scorer, and he will have a big game.

#17 Michigan State at #14 Purdue  MSU has played a difficult schedule, and it continues at Purdue.  I think MSU's backcourt as a whole has the edge, but the Spartans have no answer for JaJuan Johnson.

#15 Minnesota at Michigan  Minnesota is just 3-3 in the Big Ten, losing all three road games.  However, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are tougher road games than Michigan.  The Gophers take this one, though they've still got more to do to prove they're in the Big Ten's top tier. 

Marquette at #16 Notre Dame  Notre Dame is usually a tough team to beat at the Joyce Center.  I'll take the Irish at home, despite the throttling in Milwaukee barely a week ago.  Marquette will keep it close because that's what they do, but it doesn't seem they have the composure to actually win the close game.

#19 Louisville at Providence  Louisville is once again an NCAA lock, and Providence is once again one of the three or four teams the NCAA locks of the Big East enjoy playing, because it'll be a win.

Arizona State at #20 Washington  The Huskies are anchored by the little guy, 5'8" junior point guard Isiah Thomas, who is one of the best in the country, and the big guy, 6'9" senior Matthew Bryan-Amaning on the inside.  The Pac 10 stinks again this year, but the Huskies don't.  They're good enough to secure a top three seed if they can take care of business, and ASU on Saturday should be no problem.

#22 Saint Mary's at Vanderbilt  The Gaels are an NCAA team and have a shot of winning the WCC again this year, but if they don't they might need this win to avoid playing in one of the new Play-In Games as one of the last at large teams in.  A road game in Nashville at the old gym with its benches on the sides of the court will prove too daunting a task.

#25 Cincinnati at St. John's  Cincinnati took care of business early on against inferior competition, and they deserve the number next to their name.  But Steve Lavin's senior-laden team is also making some noise in the Big East.  Cincinnati needs this to avoid a 3-4 start in conference play and a 3 game losing streak, all on the road.  I don't see it happening.

Sunday:

#18 Wisconsin at Northwestern  Jon Leur vs. John Shurna will be an interesting matchup of similar players.  Wisconsin is beatable on the road in the Big Ten, but Northwestern still won't get that breakthrough win to prove it's finally their year for a tournament appearance.

South Florida at #21 West Virginia  WVU looked solid in their victory over Purdue last weekend.  They're coming around, and if Truck Bryant and Kevin Jones return next year they will contend for the Big East title.  USF has taken a step back after showing some life in the Big East last year, expected with the loss of standout Dominque Jones, but unforunate.